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Task time estimator

Turns your past task durations into a mean, median, spread, a log-normal fit and a commit figure at a chosen confidence, with optional contingency and an optimistic-likely-pessimistic shortcut.

Paste some actuals, or load an example.

The commit figure is a quantile of a fit to your own history, not a promise: the log-normal model when the mean sits above the median, the normal model otherwise, and both figures stay visible in the result. The prediction band brackets the next single task; the mean band brackets the long-run average and is always narrower. Copy the estimate together with its basis when you share it.
Options

More time & date tools

- Action item tracker (/time/action-item-tracker)
- Reading time planner (/time/academic-reading-time-calculator)
- Duration converter (/time/duration-converter)
All time & date tools (/time)

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Canonical HTML: https://nutter.tools/time/task-time-estimator
Markdown version: https://nutter.tools/time/task-time-estimator.md
Plain-text version: https://nutter.tools/time/task-time-estimator.txt
Agent index: https://nutter.tools/llms.txt