Your files stay on your device

PERT project estimator

Enter optimistic, likely, and pessimistic estimates per task and get PERT durations, spread, confidence ranges, and deadline probability.

Add task rows to see the estimate.

The math is the standard PERT set: each task gets E = (O + 4M + P) / 6 and SD = (P - O) / 6, project expected time is the sum, and the project SD assumes tasks are independent, which real projects are not: shared people, a slipped dependency, or one underestimated integration correlates them, so the true spread is usually wider than this range. Deadline probabilities and the commit date treat the total as normal, which is the central limit theorem's comfort, not a guarantee; a project with one dominant task keeps that task's shape. Zero-spread projects (O = M = P everywhere) get a straight in-or-out answer instead of a probability.
Options

More fake data tools

- Business day calculator (/time/business-days)
- Duration converter (/time/duration-converter)
- ISO 8601 duration (/time/iso-duration)
All fake data tools (/data)

Was this tool useful?
YesNo

Canonical HTML: https://nutter.tools/data/pert-project-estimator
Markdown version: https://nutter.tools/data/pert-project-estimator.md
Plain-text version: https://nutter.tools/data/pert-project-estimator.txt
Agent index: https://nutter.tools/llms.txt